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How to calculate the odds of making your hand

Unless you are a mathematical genius, the actual process of calculating the odds of walking away a winner in any given poker hand is mind boggling to say the least. While a student of advanced mathematics will most probably welcome the challenge, most poker players need to refer to a more basic, easy to follow formula. So, how do you calculate the odds of winning a poker game, without turning to a computer (or a maths genius)?

Thankfully, there is a simple method for calculating the odds that will get you close enough to the actual percentage: count your outs and multiply by ‘2’ twice. The examples that follow assume a game of Hold’em is taking place.

Example 1:

You hold a Qh and 2h, the flop is 6h-10c-5h. You now hold four of the possible 13 hearts in the deck. Nine hearts remain in the deck; if you multiply the 9 by 2, you get 18 (the ’2′ comes from the two cards yet to be turned over). To find the percentage of winning, multiply 18 by 2 again. 36% is close enough, as the actual figure is 34.97%

Example 2:

You hold a 9 and 10. The flop puts an 8-7-2 on the table. This open-ended straight has a chance of hitting a card 8 times. One of the four jacks or four sixes would finish the straight. 8 times 2 is 16 and 16 times 2 is 32%. Again, this figure is close enough to the actual 31.46%. These figures can help you to make a decision as to whether you should stay in and go for it, or fold your hand.

Of course, if you are mathematically minded you will know that there are other factors in play that will influence your gaming decisions. First, consider what the other players are betting: is the pot just getting too steep for you to take a chance, or is it worth a shot? That is a question only you can answer.

Calculating pot odds can be a little more complicated and need to be put into a rational form. A simple calculation for pot odds is to count your outs and multiply by 4 after the flop, and then by 2 after the river. The chance of taking a pot if you need 8 cards after the flop is 32%, making it a ratio of 68 to 32, which translates to 2.1 to 1. If your cut-off odds are 2.3 to 1, then you should make the call and stay in the hand. The chances are good that you just might come out ahead.